The International Energy Agency’s 295-page flagship report reveals a world where China dominates EV manufacturing, oil displacement is accelerating, and the electric truck revolution has begun.
The global EV sales outlook is based on IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 executive-summary data, with the IEA launch slides and Electrek coverage used for cross-checks.
IEA Global EV Outlook 2026: 20 Million EVs Sold, China Makes 75%, and 30% of New
The Numbers That Define a Transformation
The IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026, released May 20, delivers a comprehensive verdict: 2025 was the year EVs went mainstream. Global sales surpassed 20 million units (+20% YoY), representing one in four new cars sold worldwide. Production hit nearly 22 million units (+25%), and the global EV fleet approached 80 million vehicles.
China’s dominance is staggering. The country produced nearly 75% of the world’s EVs and supplied about 60% of global sales. Chinese NEV sales hit 16.49 million units (+28.2%), with December penetration breaking 52.3%. BYD alone sold 4.6 million NEVs in 2025, surpassing Tesla for the global annual EV crown. CATL shipped 661 GWh of lithium batteries, maintaining the world’s largest production capacity at 772 GWh.
Oil Displacement and the Electric Truck Revolution
In 2025, EVs avoided approximately 1.7 million barrels of oil per day. By 2030, the IEA projects this will nearly triple to 5 million barrels daily — with China alone accounting for 2.7 million barrels. That’s a structural shift in oil demand that will reshape energy markets and geopolitics.
The electric truck segment is experiencing its own breakout. Global sales exceeded 400,000 units for the first time, more than doubling year-over-year. In China, one in four trucks sold is now electric, with electric heavy-duty truck sales surging from 84,000 to 230,000 units. By 2035, electric trucks could reach 20% of global sales and 60% in China.
Looking Ahead: 2035 Projections and Battery Trends
Even under current policy settings, the IEA projects the global EV fleet will grow from under 80 million to over 510 million by 2035 — a six-fold increase. EVs would account for roughly 50% of new car sales globally, with China’s penetration potentially exceeding 90%. Vietnam, driven by VinFast, could surpass 80%.
Global battery deployment reached 1.2 TWh in 2025, seven times the 2020 level, with prices falling another 8%. China produces over 80% of the world’s battery cells. The report also notes the emergence of commercial V2G services and the first 1000V-architecture production vehicles enabling 10-minute charging times. The infrastructure challenge remains: despite 1.8 million new public chargers, less than 5% of the EV fleet can currently access 250kW+ speeds.
